Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 19.662237 21.391764 23.303889 25.594868 28.292840 31.405246 35.322254
2024-10-20 16.818500 19.031463 21.655048 25.063388 29.484778 35.200880 43.480540
2024-10-27 15.573984 18.202638 21.508882 26.127983 32.705645 42.292275 58.685395
2024-11-03 14.202388 16.966002 20.586830 25.918890 34.076521 47.215286 73.470986
2024-11-10 13.239569 16.105895 19.993384 25.989264 35.791149 53.224610 94.701603
2024-11-17 12.501522 15.445203 19.558679 26.170769 37.671278 60.268225 125.967245
2024-11-24 11.875570 14.864304 19.148572 26.289709 39.436397 67.925387 172.199957
2024-12-01 11.246701 14.216284 18.556678 25.999414 40.346887 74.185313 230.951239
2024-12-08 10.772251 13.748612 18.183521 26.009593 41.840372 82.872647 344.997243
2024-12-15 10.302668 13.250181 17.710189 25.766475 42.735826 90.596664 533.279399
2024-12-22 9.877490 12.787751 17.250883 25.481416 43.468851 98.517596 928.987343
2024-12-29 9.508567 12.386266 16.855310 25.260599 44.302960 107.721766 2252.069730
2025-01-05 9.174914 12.024341 16.504901 25.100080 45.308176 119.153968 40561.043465
2025-01-12 8.793582 11.568396 15.965918 24.508577 45.083325 125.224036 NaN
2025-01-19 8.708636 11.570211 16.199102 25.497378 49.426175 162.373081 NaN
2025-01-26 8.437691 11.261179 15.872000 25.281343 50.292255 181.341314 NaN
2025-02-02 8.229269 11.041448 15.685352 25.342113 52.045991 212.884345 NaN
2025-02-09 8.051633 10.862049 15.556772 25.513096 54.242776 258.861030 NaN
2025-02-16 7.877869 10.680078 15.410368 25.625739 56.319418 318.222810 NaN
2025-02-23 7.663586 10.421699 15.108367 25.347097 56.932948 364.508679 NaN
2025-03-02 7.499893 10.240288 14.937280 25.356609 58.667021 455.555872 NaN
2025-03-09 7.315821 10.017321 14.676002 25.123555 59.403854 542.739533 NaN
2025-03-16 7.137427 9.797283 14.408740 24.850295 59.920157 646.688734 NaN